Severity models of cross-median and rollover crashes on rural divided highways in Pennsylvania

摘要

Introduction: Crossover and rollover crashes in earth-divided, traversable medians on rural divided highways can lead to severe injury outcomes. This study estimated severity models of these two crash types. Vehicle, driver, roadway, and median cross-section design data were factors considered in the models. A unique aspect of the data used to estimate the models were the availability of median cross-slope data, which are not commonly included in roadway inventory data files. Methods: A binary logit model of cross-median crash severity and a multinomial logit model of rollover crash severity were estimated using five years of data from rural divided highways in Pennsylvania. Results: The highest probability of a fatal or major injury in cross-median and rollover crashes was found to occur in cases when a driver was not wearing a seatbelt. While flatter cross-slopes and narrower medians were associated with more severe cross-median crash outcomes, steeper cross-slopes and narrower medians significantly increased rollover crash severity outcomes. The presence of horizontal curves was associated with increased probabilities of high-severity outcomes in a median rollover crash. Impact on Industry: Modeling results in this study confirmed that cross-median and median rollover crash severity outcomes are associated with median cross-section design characteristics. Based on the estimated models, it appears that flatter and narrower medians lead to more severe injury outcomes in cross-median crashes. Steeper median cross-slopes and narrower medians were associated with higher probabilities of more severe outcomes in median rollover crashes. The results presented in this study suggest that there is a trade-off between median cross-section design and cross-median and rollover crashes in earth-divided, traversable medians on rural divided highways. While the severity models can be included in a framework to develop design guidance in relation to this trade-off, models of crash frequency should also be considered.