为准确分析影响交通事故严重性的各项因素,引入 Ordinal Logistic模型研究驾驶员、车辆、环境因素对事故严重程度的影响,利用统计学方法对模型进行显著性检验.并使用该模型对北卡罗来纳州2010—2014年385个翻车事故样本进行严重性影响因素分析,所得回归模型符合平行线检验( =0.1151)和似然比检验( ≤0.0001).通过模型分析得出变量"安全带"( ≤0.0001)、"路面状况"( =0.0136)、"道路线形"( =0.0057)对翻车事故的严重性具有显著影响,研究结果表明:Ordinal Logistic模型适合于分析与揭示影响交通事故严重性的各个因素.%In order to accurately analyze the miscellaneous factors influencing the traffic accident severities,Ordinal Logistic model was utilized to study the effect of the elements,such as drivers,vehicles,and environments,on the se-verity of traffic accident,and the statistical method was used for significance test.The analysis on the influence factors of the severity of 385 rollover accidents sampled from 2010 to 2014 in North Carolina was carried out by the proposed model.The obtained regression model accorded with the parallel line test ( =0.1 1 5 1)and the likelihood ratio test ( ≤0.000 1).Through the model analysis,it was concluded that the variables such as"safety belt"( ≤0.000 1),"pavement condition"( ≤0.013 6)and the"road alignment"( ≤0.005 7)had a significant impact on the severity of rollover accidents.The results show that the Ordinal Logistic model is suitable for analyzing and revealing the factors that affect the severity of traffic accidents.
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