Evaluation and prediction of the status of COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control based on the SEIR+~(CAQ) model

摘要

This paper analyzes the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in China, establishes a SEIR'c AQ epidemiologic model that classifies the diagnosed population into asymptomatic, mild, and severe, and considers the condition of an isolated population. First of all, we theoretically analyzed the key problems of the disease-free equilibrium, stability, and basic reproduction number of the model. Then, combined with the actual data, the development trend of the epidemic situation is simulated and compared, and the influence of some important parameters is discussed in the model evaluation part. Finally, based on the theoretical analysis and numerical simulation results, we forecast the future development of the COVID-19 epidemic and put forward some reasonable scientific suggestions for the government to formulate a future epidemic prevention policy.