A Sensitivity-Analysis-Based Approach for the Calibration of Traffic Simulation Models

摘要

In this paper, a multistep sensitivity analysis (SA) approach for model calibration is proposed and applied to a complex traffic simulation model with more than 100 parameters. Throughout this paper, it is argued that the application of SA is crucial for true comprehension and the correct use of traffic simulation models, but it is also acknowledged that the main obstacle toward an extensive use of the most sophisticated techniques is the high number of model runs usually required. For this reason, we have tested the possibility of performing a multistep SA, where, at each step, model parameters are grouped on the basis of possible common features, and a final SA on the parameters pertaining to the most influential groups is then performed. The proposed methodology was applied to an urban motorway case study simulated using MITSIMLab, a complex microscopic traffic simulator. The method allowed the analysis of the role played by all parameters and by the model stochasticity itself, with 80% fewer model evaluations than the standard variance-based approach. Ten model parameters accounted for a big share in the output variance for the specific case study. A Kriging metamodel was then estimated and integrated with the multistep SA results for a global calibration framework in the presence of uncertainty. Results confirm the great potential of this approach and open up to a novel view for the calibration of a traffic simulation model.