Short-Term Load Forecasting using Dynamic Neural Networks

摘要

This paper presents short-term electricity load forecasting using dynamic neural networks, DNN. The proposed approach includes an assessment of the DNN's stability to ascertain continued reliability. A comparative study between three different neural network architectures, which include feedforward, Elman and the radial basis neural networks, is performed. The performance and stability of each DNN is evaluated using actual hourly load data. Stability for each of the three different networks is determined through Eigen values analysis. The neural networks weights are dynamically adapted to meet the performance and stability requirements. A new approach for adapting radial basis function (RBF) neural network weights is also proposed. Evaluation of the networks is done in terms of forecasting error, stability and the effort required in training a particular network. The results show that DNN based on the radial basis neural network architecture performs much better than the rest. Eigen value analysis also shows that the radial basis based DNN is more stable making it very reliable as the input varies.