Improving Forecasts Of Garch Family Models With The Artificial Neural Networks: An Application To The Daily Returns In Istanbul Stock Exchange

摘要

In the study, we discussed the ARCH/GARCH family models and enhanced them with artificial neural networks to evaluate the volatility of daily returns for 23.10.1987-22.02.2008 period in Istanbul Stock Exchange. We proposed ANN-APGARCH model to increase the forecasting performance of APGARCH model. The ANN-extended versions of the obtained GARCH models improved forecast results. It is noteworthy that daily returns in the ISE show strong volatility clustering, asymmetry and nonlinearity characteristics.