摘要：Based on the population data of Shandong province from 2004 to 2014, as well as using genetic principles, the Leslie population forecasting model which is applicable for separate two-child policy is established and put into use for analysis and prediction of the population of different ages in Shandong province until 2054.Then, based on the data of childbearing desire, the Leslie model which is applicable to universal two-child policy is established and the prediction results are obtained.In order to study the influence of two-child policy on the number of newborn, two factors, the education level and per capita disposable income, are used to solve the fertility willingness of women of childbearing age in Shandong Province, so as to predict the growth of children in recent two years.By comparing the predictions of different policies and the prediction of number of newborns, it is concluded that separate two-child policy has a stabilizing effect on the population of Shandong Province in short term.But in the long term, the lag effect on aging population is poor.However, universal two-child policy will bring long-term effect on population retain, especially on the maintenance of working-age population.But the number of newborns shows a rapid rising trend in the short term, suggesting that construction of children's infrastructure should be strengthened.%基于2004~2014年山东省人口数据,引入遗传学思想,建立了适用于"单独二孩"政策的山东省Leslie人口预测模型,以之预测该政策下至2054年山东省人口发展情况.依托当下生育意愿数据,建立了适用于"全面二孩"政策的Leslie模型,并得出预测结果.为特别研究二孩政策对新生儿数量的影响,抽取学历水平及人均可支配收入两个因素求解山东省适龄人群生育意愿,从而预测近两年幼儿增长情况.通过对比不同政策下的预测结果,结合新生儿预测可知"单独二孩"政策短期内有稳定山东省人口作用,但长期看对人口老龄化的迟滞作用较差;相对前者,"全面二孩"政策将带来长期有效的人口保持作用,对维持劳动力人口数量效果显著,但短期内新生儿数量呈快速增长趋势,提示应当加强儿童基础设施建设.
