Comparison of the Glasgow-Blatchford and Rockall Scores for prediction of nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding outcomes in Chinese patients

摘要

The Glasgow-Blatchford scores (GBS) and Rockall scores (RS) are commonly used for stratifying patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage (NVUGIH). Although predictive value of these scoring methods has been extensively validated, their clinical effectiveness remains unclear. The following study evaluated the GBS and RS scoring system with reference to bleeding, needs for further surgery, endoscopic intervention and death, in order to verify their effectiveness and accuracy in clinical application. Patients who presented with NVUGIH, or who were consequently diagnosed with the disease (by endoscopy examination) between January 1, 2008, and December 31, 2012 were enrolled in the study. GBS and RS scores were compared to predict bleeding, the needs for further surgery, endoscopic intervention, death by ROC curves and AUC value. Among 2977 patients, the pre-endoscopic RS and complete RS score (CRS) were superior to the GBS score (AUC: 0.842 vs 0.804 vs 0.622, respectively) for predicting the mortality risk in patients. The pre-endoscopic RS score predicting re-bleeding was significantly higher than the CRS and the GBS score (AUC: 0.658 vs 0.548 vs 0.528, respectively). In addition, the 3 scoring systems revealed to be poor predictors of surgical operation effectiveness (AUC: 0.589 vs 0.547 vs 0.504, respectively). Our data demonstrated that the GBS and RS scoring systems could be used to predict outcomes in patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding.