Pandemic Influenza and Excess Intensive-Care Workload

摘要

In the Netherlands a major part of preparedness plan-ning for an epidemic or pandemic consists of maintaining essential public services, e.g., by the police, fi re depart-ments, army personnel, and healthcare workers. We pro-vide estimates for peak demand for healthcare workers, factoring in healthcare worker absenteeism and using esti-mates from published epidemiologic models on the expect-ed evolution of pandemic in. uenza in relation to the impact on peak surge capacity of healthcare facilities and intensive care units (ICUs). Using various published scenarios, we estimate their effect in increasing the availability of health-care workers for duty during a pandemic. We show that even during the peak of the pandemic, all patients requiring hospital and ICU admission can be served, including those who have non–in. uenza-related conditions. For this rigor-ous task differentiation, clear hierarchical management, un-ambiguous communication, and discipline are essential and we recommend informing and training non-ICU healthcare workers for duties in the ICU