Bayesian Estimation of Non-Gaussian Stochastic Volatility Models

摘要

In this paper, a general Non-Gaussian Stochastic Volatility model is proposed instead of the usual Gaussian model largely studied. We consider a new specification of SV model where the innovations of the return process have centered non-Gaussian error distribution rather than the standard Gaussian distribution usually employed. The model describes the behaviour of random time fluctuations in stock prices observed in the financial markets. It offers a response to better model the heavy tails and the abrupt changes observed in financial time series. We consider the Laplace density as a special case of non-Gaussian SV models to be applied to our data base. Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique, based on the bayesian analysis, has been employed to estimate the model’s parameters.