Estimating conditional heteroscedastic nonlinear autoregressive model by using smoothing spline and penalized spline methods

摘要

We propose smoothing spline (SS) and penalized spline (PS) methods in a class of nonparametric regression methodsfor estimating the unknown functions in a conditional heteroscedastic nonlinear autoregressive (CHNLAR) model. TheCHNLAR model consists of a trend and heteroscedastic functions in terms of past data at lag 1. The SS and PS methods weretested in estimating the unknown functions used to transform data so that it fits the trend and the heteroscedastic functions. In asimulation study, time series data were generated and hypothesis testing of the bias was used to check the accuracy. The SS andPS methods exhibit a good power estimation in most cases of generated data. As real data, gold price was modeled by using SSand PS methods in the CHNLAR model. The results show that the SS method performed better than the PS method.