Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Climate Change Impact on Future Wind Power Potential in Burundi (East Africa)

摘要

This paper assessed climate change impact on future wind power potential across highlands and western lowlands of Burundi. Hourly observed and MERRA-2 data were considered for the historical period 1980-2016, and a Multi-model ensemble for future projections data of eight selected Regional Climate Models under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 over the periods 2019-2040 and 2071-2100 was used. Variability and trend analysis were adopted using standardized index and Mann-Kendall’s test, respectively while wind power density (WPD) in quartiles was adopted for changes distribution. As results, diurnal wind speeds (WS) were higher from 9:00 AM to 2:00 PM, while monthly wind speeds reached the maximum during summer time. An increasing trend in WPD was detected all over the studied area. Over the period 2019-2040, the lowest WPD change is projected at Northern Highlands (NHL) under RCP 4.5 with 28.04 W · m~( − 2) while the highest WPD change of 47.35 W · m~( − 2) is projected under RCP 8.5 at Southern Imbo plain (SIP). As for the period 2071-2100, the highest change is expected at SIP under RCP 8.5 with 152.39 W · m~( − 2) while the minimum change of 83.96 W · m~( − 2) is projected under RCP 4.5 at NHL. The findings showed that areas nearby the Lake Tanganyika are expected to have high positive WDP changes.