United States Marine Corps Aerial Refueling Requirements: Queuing Theory and Simulation Analysis

摘要

Static queuing models, which have been used to estimate USMC KC 130 aerial refueling requirements, do not incorporate the full complexity of refueling track performance. Queuing models do not account for the overlapping KC 130 sorties and drogue failures, or variable customer arrival rates and fuel demands. The first issue involves the ability to service aerial refueling customers in a timely manner (flow); the second issue involves the supply of fuel available for refueling customers (stock). Two simulation models were introduced to address these issues. An ARENA simulation model was used to analyze how overlapping KC130 sorties and drogue failure affect refueling track performance (expected time in the queue, average customers in the queue, and refueling track capacity utilization). A Crystal Ball simulation model was introduced to assess the impact of sortie duration on refueling track performance and the KC 130 requirement. The ARENA simulation model indicated that maintaining two KC 130s on-station provided a sufficient flow of fuel in the east theater, vice the three KC 130s suggested by the queuing model (considering drogue failures). Both models maintained two KC 130s on-station in the west. The Crystal Ball simulation model illustrated a tradeoff between sortie duration, KC 130s on-station and the probability of completing the scheduled sortie before issuing all available fuel. In some instances, it is cost-effective to maintain more than the required KC 130s on-station. This increases sortie duration and actually reduces the total KC130 requirement. More aircraft are required in each sortie, but fewer aircraft are required to provide the necessary rotational base. The results of this simulation were used to generate trade-offs between the KC130 requirement and the probability of providing a sufficient fuel supply at all times. Depending on both the refueling track performance desired and the variability of customer arrival rates and fuel demands, the KC 130 fixed-wing aerial refueling requirement ranges between 70 and 120 aircraft (with present value one generation life-cycle costs between $8,344 million and $14,304 million, respectively). Ultimately, the USMC must determine the appropriate balance between costs and performance. However, this topic is beyond the scope of this paper.