UNITED KINGDOM

摘要

Heavy revisions to the historical data show that the recession in 2008 was deeper than previously thought, with GDP falling by 7.1% from peak-to-trough rather than 6.4%. This figure means that the recession in the UK was the steepest of any developed country, with the exception of Japan. For this year, Q2 GDP growth was revised down to a mediocre 0.1 % (q-o-q) while Q1 GDP was downgraded to 0.4% as the economy teetered on the brink of recession again. Household consumption plummeted in Q2 by 0.8% (q-o-q) -and by 1.7% (y-o-y) - with consumers cutting back on spending following pessimistic economic news. Concerns about the current situation in the Euro zone are also inhibiting growth. However, investors fearing a messy Euro zone default, coupled with the UK's AAA credit rating, mean that 10-year bond rates are at historically low levels. A glimmer of positive economic news was provided by the PMI for the services sector bucking the downward trend and rising to 52.9 in September, from 51.1 in August. The manufacturing PMI also rose, to 51.1, signalling a return to expansion in the sector following a reading of 49.4 in August.