SIGNIFICANT CHANGES INTHE CONSENSUS

摘要

There is a divergence in the GDP Growth prospects of G-5 economies featured in our Significant Changes section. Whereas the Euro zone economies appear to be reaping the benefits of the ECB's QE programme, which is pinning down the euro and improving credit supply, the US economy is on the backfoot. The strong greenback is weighing on exports and ongoing speculation over when the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates is adding further upward pressure to the dollar. Business investment has weakened. Low oil prices are contributing to softer investment in oil exploration. The German GDP outlook has edged up again as buoyant consumer spending benefits from the stable jobs market and improving wage growth. Industrial production has remained indifferent, though, and the disappointing Q1 2015 GDP estimate reflected lacklustre trade figures. French prospects have stabilised amid a slight pick-up in manufacturing output and a boost in domestic expenditure as demand for durable goods rises. Slow-moving progress on reforms remains a concern, but the recent Q1 GDP release has been well received. Meanwhile, the CPI Chart (right) suggests that inflation sentiment has troughed amid an uptick in oil prices, which rose above $65 per barrel in early May. Despite the central bank's massive stimulus programme, weakdemand in Japan is keeping inflation low and undermining firms' abilities to raise prices. Pressure is building on the Bank of Japan to ensure that another deflationary spiral does not take hold. Meanwhile, record-low inflation in the UK seems likely to delay an interest rate hike until 2016, particularly following slower GDP growth and weak consumer earnings.