SIGNIFICANT CHANGES INTHE QUARTERLY CONSENSUS

摘要

Changes in G-7 Quarterly Forecasts for GDP contrast the , March 2020 consensus projections in blue (pages 3,28 and 29) with those from September 2019 and March 2019. Large forecast revisions highlight the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on GDP growth. Q1, Q2 and Q3 forecasts have been widely slashed. For the Germany, Canada, France and Italy, the downturn could trough in Q2. The dent in US projections has so far been limited by underlying economic strength in January and February. However, a country-wide lockdown in Italy has sunk GDP forecasts into recession, with a rebound unlikely before next year. Japan also finds itself in recession (growth was already languishing following a consumption tax hike). The US, Canada, and UK cut rates by 50bps to support activity. German GDP is stuck in the slow lane amid the spike in severe global anxiety.