UNITED KINGDOM

摘要

Prime Minister - Mr. Boris Johnson (Conservative Party). Parliament - The Conservative party won 365 seats in the 650-seat House of Commons (lower house), in the December 2019 general election. Next Election - December 2024 (general election). Nominal GDP - £2,216bn (2019). Population - 67.5mn (mid-year, 2019). $/£ Exchange Rate -1.277 (average, 2019).Favourable progress in the UK vaccination programme has fuelled optimism of a stirring growth recovery from last year's -9.8% virus-induced slump. Higher mobility - linked to the reopening of non-essential retail and recreational sites-has stoked expectations of a boom in consumer spending and the possibility of a rapid near-term GDP expansion. A sizeable rebound in Q2 GDP looks likely, after the Q1 release showed that businesses adapted to the third national lockdown better than predicted as activity dipped -1.5% (q-o-q) from +1.3% in Q4. The growth rate of 2.1 % (m-o-m) in March was particularly robust, attributed to output jumps in all key sectors including a 1.9% advance in services and 5.8% surge in construction. Separately, the buoyant 5.4% (m-o-m) reading for retail sales underlined how the shackles on spending appeared to be lifting. The services PMI reading of 61.0 added to the deluge of positive monthly developments, alongside a similarly strong figure on the manufacturing front. In last week's policy meeting, the Bank of England (BoE) upgraded its growth forecasts and moderated its weekly asset purchases from £4.4bn to £3.4bn, retaining the total amount of QE at £895bn and reiterating that the move did not represent a change in its current monetary policy stance.