UNITED KINGDOM

摘要

The Office for National Statistics revealed that GDP growth contracted for the first time since Q4 2012, down -0.2% (q-o-q) in Q2. The weaker-than-expected figure marked a severe deceleration from the +0.5% expansion in Q1, amid broad-based weakness across all key sectors. The vital services sector almost ground to a halt, while construction and manufacturing output plunged by -1.3% (q-o-q) and -2.3%, respectively, the latter enduring its largest drop in over 10 years. This partly reflected payback for strong output in Q1, after firms built up inventories to shield against disruption from the original Brexit deadline in late March. Widespread maintenance shutdowns (brought forward from August) curbed production in the car industry in April, while profitability in the sector has been depressed by sagging global demand and Brexit planning. Meanwhile, gross fixed investment fell by -1.0% (q-o-q) in Q2, while the business investment component dipped by -0.5%. A recent Bank of England report concluded that business confidence had turned gloomier and investment intentions were at their lowest point since January 2010. Nervousness amongst businesses has been amplified by the government's assertions that the UK will leave the EU on October 31, regardless of whetheradeal is reached. European officials have insisted that the existing withdrawal agreement will not be renegotiated, raising the probability of no-deal. The chancellor has released extra funding to ramp up no-deal preparations, leaving our panel's GDP projections for 2019, and more so 2020, prone to revisions in the coming months.