Fusing attack detection and severity probabilities: a method for computing minimum-risk war decisions

摘要

State actors can minimize the risk of combat deaths by making decisions consistent with a likelihood ratio test that fuses attack detection data with prior war probabilities. The power-law, which has for decades been used to model the distribution of combat fatalities, is invalid as a probability because the mean is divergent. An investigation of Correlates of War data reveal that combat fatalities follow a log-gamma or log-normal probability distribution depending if a state's strategy is offensive or defensive. This finding is linked to a state actor model where combat deaths have logarithmic utility and defensive strategies appear lower risk than offensive strategies. Results suggests that minimum-risk decision thresholds be derived from defensive statistics. The method of computing the thresholds is illustrated using war statistics from NATO countries.