Two routes of transmission for Nosema infections in a honeybee population model with polyethism and time-periodic parameters can lead to drastically different qualitative model behavior

摘要

Nosema ceranae is a widespread microsporidian parasite of the Western honeybee (Apis mellifera). We extend a previous mathematical model of the disease by including mass action infection as a second route of transmission. The underlying honeybee population model accounts for polyethism by considering hive and forager bees separately. It accounts for seasonal variations in honeybee biology by considering model parameters as time-periodic functions. The resulting model is too complex for an insightful rigorous analysis, wherefore we study it primarily with numerical techniques. Our results suggest that direct transmission alone can lead to chaotic behavior in the underlying model, but that this behavior is dampened or suppressed when both transmission routes are considered simultaneously. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.