Parameter Estimation in Epidemiology: from Simple to ComplexDynamics

摘要

We revisit the parameter estimation framework for population biological dynamicalsystems, and apply it to calibrate various models in epidemiology with empirical timeseries, namely influenza and dengue fever. When it comes to more complex models likemulti‐strain dynamics to describe the virus‐host interaction in dengue fever, even mostrecently developed parameter estimation techniques, like maximum likelihood iteratedfiltering, come to their computational limits. However, the first results of parameterestimation with data on dengue fever from Thailand indicate a subtle interplay betweenstochasticity and deterministic skeleton. The deterministic system on its own alreadydisplays complex dynamics up to deterministic chaos and coexistence of multipleattractors.