Poyang Lake is suffering from persistent eutrophication, which is degrading the local ecosystem. A better understanding of the mechanisms that drive eutrophication in lake systems is essential to fight the ongoing deterioration. In this study, hydraulic residence time (HRT) was used to evaluate Poyang Lake’s trophic state. A hydrology and ecosystem forced model was constructed to simulate long-term changes in algae and aquatic plant biomass and total phosphorous (TP). A comparison analysis revealed that between 1812 and 1828 (i.e., a consistent-change stage), climate and hydrology were the main driving forces, while algae and aquatic plant biomass contributed only 20.9% to the trophic changes in Poyang Lake. However, between 1844 and 1860 the biomass predominated contributing 63.6%. This could be attributed to nutrient absorption by algae and aquatic plants. A correlation analysis of the water TP and algae and aquatic plant biomass revealed a strong positive relationship. However, the algae and aquatic plant growth rate tended to decline after the biomass reached half of the maximum. This research reconstructs the long-term trophic evolution of Poyang Lake and provides a better understanding of the relationship between climatic and hydrological changes and lake ecosystems.
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