黄河三角洲地下水生态水位确定的风险分析

摘要

There are a lot of uncertain factors in the process of ecological groundwater level evaluation, which directly affects the reliability of the results of ecological groundwater level evaluation. Based on the analysis of these uncertainty factors, MC method was put forward to calculate the risk degree of ecological groundwater level;uncertainty analysis of parameters were carried out, risk degree of calculating level and frequency distribution were discussed based on a study area when the parameters obey different probability distribution. The research shows that the ecological groundwater level value is affected by the change of parameters on the spatial distribution and presents the obvious uncertainty.%在地下水生态水位的确定过程中，存在着大量的不确定性因素，它们直接影响着地下水生态水位计算结果的可靠性。基于地下水生态水位计算的不确定性因素分析，给出了计算地下水生态水位风险的蒙特卡罗方法。对各参数进行灵敏度分析，并以黄河三角洲为例，给出了潜水蒸发强度E、潜水埋深Δ服从不同分布时，地下水生态水位的风险率和频率分布特征。研究结果表明地下水生态水位受参数E、Δ空间分布变化的影响，呈现出明显的不确定性。