文章以社会实践理论和行为决策理论为基础,利用四川藏区1320户农牧户调查数据,从藏区农牧户乡村旅游经营参与决策和经营方式选择决策出发,采用二元logistic模型分析农牧户乡村旅游经营参与决策的影响因素;利用结构方程模型测算参与意愿在农牧户资本和参与决策之间的中介效应;利用无序多分类logistic模型分析农牧户乡村旅游经营方式选择决策的影响因素.结果表明:(1)藏区农牧户乡村旅游经营参与意愿较强,但真正参与的农牧户家庭不足5成,经营方式主要为摆地摊.总体上,四川藏区乡村旅游发展过程中,农牧户的参与度不高,参与方式单一,参与层次低水平化.(2)藏区农牧户乡村旅游经营参与决策主要受到参与人数、邻里关系、是否为干部户、非农收入、旅游规划、旅游培训的正向影响.(3)参与意愿的正向中介效应显著.人力资本、经济资本、社会资本、个体/家庭特征和政策变量都会通过参与意愿对农牧户乡村旅游经营参与决策产生显著的正向中介效应.整体上,资本通过参与意愿对藏区农牧户乡村旅游经营参与决策有0.048的间接效应,间接效应占总效应的21.762%.具体来看,人力资本的间接效应最大,为0.107;经济资本的间接效应占总效应比重最大,为47.368%.(4)藏区农牧户乡村旅游经营方式选择决策主要受到家庭劳动力数量、参与人数、住房面积和非农收入的正向影响.%Fostering the participation of farmers and herdsmen in rural tourism management means enhancing the supply structure of rural tourism;promoting the development of high level rural tourism and making green mountains and blue rivers become gold and silver treasures. Based upon both the social practice and the behavioral decision-making theories and by means of a survey data which included 1 320 peasants and herdsmen residing on the Tibetan areas of Sichuan Province, this paper starts from the decision to participate in tourism management and from the selection of a business model.Using the structural equation model to measure the mediating effect of the intentions of farmers and herdsmen to participate in tourism and the random multi-class logistic model to analyze the influence of rural tourism households decision to take part in rural tourism management, we have reached the following conclusions:(1)there is a strong willingness of farmers and herdsmen in Tibetan villages to participate in tourism management,but less than 50% of farmers and herdsmen actually do participate. In general, the participation of farmers and herdsmen in rural tourism development in the Tibetan areas of Sichuan is rather low. (2) Decision-making on rural tourism management of farmers and herdsmen in Tibetan areas is mainly affected by the number of participants, their neighborhood, and their political status;and by their non-agricultural income,tourism planning and tourism training. (3)The positive mediation effect regarding the willingness to participate is remarkable.Human capital, economic capital, social capital, individual/family characteristics and policy variables all play a significant intermediary role on the willingness and decision to participate in rural tourism management by farmers and herdsmen. As a whole, economic capital has an indirect effect of 0.048 upon this decision(and indirect effects account for 21.762% of the total).The indirect effect of human capital is the largest:0.107;and the indirect effect of economic capital accounted for the largest proportion of the total effect with 47.368%. (4) Decision-making on rural tourism mode selection by farmers and herdsmen in Tibetan areas is mainly affected by the positive influence of the number of family members,who work,by the number of participants,by the total area of their residence and by their on-agricultural income. Therefore, this paper argues that, on the one hand, while providing financial support for farmers and herdsmen to participate in tourism management, strengthening education on rural tourism and culture is of utmost importance to improve the life quality of farmers and herdsmen. On the other hand, this paper considers that we should further spread the concerning information in order to increase the willingness of farmers and herdsmen to participate in tourism. Moreover, a reasonable planning, a proper scientific layout and the use of the current outstanding advantages can enhance tourism management in the rural areas of Tibet.
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