基于专家综合评判的故障树底事件失效率计算方法

摘要

It is particularly important to perform fault tree analysis on the vital cabin/system of a torpedo for improving diagnostic ability and torpedo reliability level.To solve the problem that it is difficult to obtain the accurate failure rate of bottom event in practical engineering, a fuzzy failure rate calculation method based on expert comprehensive evaluation is proposed in this paper.The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the relevant theory of fuzzy mathematics are used to calculate the failure rate of bottom event.By establishing a fault tree of"abnormal steering speed"in torpedo tail cabin, the failure rate of the bottom event is analyzed and calculated, and the feasibility of the method is verified.The failure rate calculated by this method can provide a reference for quantitative analysis of fault tree and a priori probability for Bayesian diagnostic reasoning.The analysis results can provide a reference for torpedo diagnosis and maintenance support.%为提高鱼雷测试诊断能力和可靠性水平, 对关键舱段/系统进行故障树分析显得尤为重要.为解决实际工程中底事件精确失效率难以获得的问题, 提出一种基于专家综合评判的模糊失效率计算方法, 采用层次分析法和模糊数学相关理论计算底事件失效率.通过建立尾舱段"操舵速度异常"故障树, 进行底事件失效率分析计算, 验证了该方法的可行性.所计算出的失效率可以为故障树定量分析提供参考, 也可以为贝叶斯诊断推理提供先验概率.该方法可为工程实际中鱼雷测试诊断和维修保障工作提供参考.