人民币汇率变动对中国进口商品价格传递效应的实证研究

摘要

通过选取国民经济的24个重点行业，使用从2009~2013年的共60个月度数据为研究样本，采用ADL 模型，对汇率变动对按国民经济分类行业的进口价格的传递弹性系数进行实证研究。结果表明：从长期来看，我国人民币汇率变动与进口价格存在着负相关关系，不同行业和产品的传递弹性存在着较大差异。%We use the autoregressive distributed lag model and the OLS estimation method to make an empirical study on the exchange rate pass-through flexibility,and transmission speed to-wards sub-level goods with twenty-four important industries of national economy and thirty-six month data from 2009 to 201 1.The result shows that:in the long run,there is a negative corre-lation between the volatility of RMB exchange rate and the import price.Moreover,different in-dustries and goods also have different flexibility.