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The empirical research of Chinese agricultural policy effects on commodity price volatility of spot and futures markets

机译:中国农业政策对现货和期货市场商品价格波动影响的实证研究

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摘要

Since 2006, the Chinese government has implemented the significant historic policy of exempting agricultural taxes comprehensively. The ARMA(k,s)-GARCH(p,q)-GED model is established in this paper, for empirical study on comprehensively exempting agricultural taxes policy effects on the price volatility of wheat, soybean, corn spot and futures markets. The results show that under the action of comprehensively exempting agricultural taxes and minimum purchase price policy in the country, spot market prices of agricultural commodities remained relatively stable, the expected objectives of Chinese agricultural policy is achieved appropriately; and Chinese agricultural commodity futures market prices swing mostly along with fluctuation of the prices of international agricultural commodity futures markets.
机译:自2006年以来,中国政府实施了一项重要的历史性政策,即全面免征农业税。本文建立了ARMA(k,s)-GARCH(p,q)-GED模型,以对免征农业税政策对小麦,大豆,玉米现货和期货市场价格波动的影响进行实证研究。结果表明,在国家全面免征农业税和最低限价政策的作用下,农产品现货市场价格保持相对稳定,中国农业政策的预期目标得以适当实现。中国农产品期货市场价格的波动主要与国际农产品期货市场价格的波动有关。

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