基于实物期权理论的企业设计创新投资时机研究

摘要

产品的设计创新已经成为企业培养和维持核心竞争优势的关键。已有文献较少基于经济管理的视角来探讨不确定条件下企业设计创新所具有的实物期权特性，且传统的 DCF 无法对管理决策柔性做出科学的评价。为此，根据实物期权理论，构建企业设计创新的投资时机模型，并利用案例证明该模型的科学性和可行性。结果表明，企业在 DCF 分析的同时，应充分考虑企业设计创新的投资期权价值，把握最佳投资时机，实现科学决策。%Product design innovation has become crucial to developing and maintaining core competitiveness of enterprises.Design innovation in a company has the real option features under uncertainty,which have been merely analyzed in perspectives of economic and management. Then,the DCF method does not value the embedded management flexibility correctly.Conse-quently,a model of timing on a corporate design innovation is built based on real options theory. Furthermore,a case is given to demonstrate the reasonability and the feasibility of this method. Finally,on the basis of the above analysis,the paper gives some advice for concerned enterprises that they should take the whole embedded real options into account during the design innovation investment together with a DCF analysis,and grasp the optimal investment timing to ensure sci-entific decision-making.