经济适用房与高房价关系的实证分析——基于VAR模型

摘要

使用2005-2010年的月度数据对我国房价增长速度与经济适用房之间的关系进行实证分析.通过建立VAR模型,进行脉冲响应分析和方差分解,并运用协整检验和Granger检验,分析两者之间可能存在的长期和短期关系以及作用方向.研究结果表明:在短期,经济适用房对全国房价增速起正向推动作用,但推动力先增强后衰减,影响较小且会在10个月后消失;在长期,经济适用房与全国房价增速之间不存在长期均衡关系和Granger因果关系.%The paper uses the monthly data in the period from 2005 to 2010 to analyze empirically the relationship between the growth rate of housing price and affordable housing. Through the impulse response analysis, the variance decomposition, the cointegration test and the Granger test,it builds a VAR model to analyze the possible long- or short-tern relationships between them and their effects. The result shows as follows: in short-term,the affordable housing helps to promote the rising acceleration of housing price, but this effect first enhance and then decrease , and is small,and will disappear after ten months;in long-term,there are not the relationships of long-term equilibrium and Granger causeality between them.