The relationship between electricity consumption and economy growth factors - empirical analysis based on VAR model

摘要

The VAR model is introduced to analyze the relationship between electricity consumption, and economy growth factors. The electricity consumption is examined by social demand of electricity, while the economy growth factors are characterized by investment in fixed assets, total retail sales of consumer goods, total imports and exports. The sample ranges from 1995 to 2012. After building the VAR model, the Johansen-Juselius test, which serves the multivariable model, is employed to test co-integration. Finally the variance decomposition is used to analyze deeply into the influence of each economy growth factor on electricity consumption. With the example of China, conclusions are drawn on two aspects. First, there is a long-term co-integration relationship between electricity consumption and economy growth factors. Second, economic growth factors' contribution to electricity consumption can be definite. These results are valuable for the forecasting of electricity consumption and policy analysis.