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Empirical Analysis of the Causal Relationship Between Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in Nigeria

机译:尼日利亚电力消费与经济增长因果关系的实证分析

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This paper investigates the relationship between electricity consumption and real GDP growth in Nigeria during a period of thirty six years (1970-2005). The paper adopts Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) and Error Correction Model (ECM) to test the causality between real GDP and electricity consumption. The order of integration of the two variables was determined using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test which was followed by co-integration and causality test. The result shows that there is unidirectional causality from real GDP to electricity consumption without a feedback effect. This could be attributed to the low level of electricity consumption, engendered by low level of electricity generation, which is too small to cause economic growth. There is need for government to diversify the energy mix to include all the untapped potentials of renewable power options such as small hydro, wind, solar and biomass among others in all the states and local constituencies. Energy wastages should be curtailed through proper efficiency measures and different pricing system. It is also suggested that government should make policies which will create an enabling environment for the private sector to generate electricity from renewable sources in terms of fiscal incentives such as tax rebate, subsidies and low import duties for the imported equipment among others. Furthermore, there is a need to review the 2003 National Energy Policy so as to come up with a sound, robust and technological energy policy that will be able to solve the challenges of the electricity sector. Political commitment through investment in energy infrastructures and capacity building of the citizens in renewable energy technologies are critical towards the improvement of electricity generation, which could then cause electricity consumption to have a significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria.
机译:本文调查了尼日利亚在三十六年(1970-2005年)期间的用电量与实际GDP增长之间的关系。本文采用向量自回归(VAR)和纠错模型(ECM)来检验实际GDP与用电量之间的因果关系。两个变量的积分顺序是使用增强Dickey Fuller(ADF)检验确定的,然后进行协整和因果检验。结果表明,从实际GDP到用电量存在单向因果关系,而没有反馈效应。这可能归因于低水平的发电量导致的低水平的电力消耗,该水平太小不足以引起经济增长。政府需要使能源结构多样化,以包括所有州和地方选区等所有未开发潜力的可再生能源选择,例如小水电,风能,太阳能和生物质能。应通过适当的效率措施和不同的定价体系来减少能源浪费。还建议政府制定政策,为税收激励,退税,补贴和进口设备低进口税等财政激励措施创造条件,使私营部门能够利用可再生能源发电。此外,有必要审查2003年《国家能源政策》,以便制定出能够解决电力行业挑战的健全,健壮和技术性的能源政策。通过对能源基础设施的投资以及公民对可再生能源技术的能力建设的政治承诺对于改善发电至关重要,这随后可能导致电力消耗对尼日利亚的经济增长产生重大影响。

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