小麦出口大国对国际价格之影响分析

摘要

从国际供应的角度入手，运用脉冲响应函数的分析方法，对小麦出口大国---美国、加拿大、欧盟和俄罗斯在2000年1月至2014年2月间的出口量和国际小麦价格进行了研究，确定了各国在国际小麦市场上的地位，揭示出各国的发展潜力。结果发现：美国和加拿大主导着国际价格但增长乏力；欧盟的出口与国际价格形成良性互动；俄罗斯地位虽弱但潜力巨大。%From the perspective of international supply,the wheat export volumes of the wheat exporting countries or international organizations---USA,Canada,EU and Russia during January 2000 and February 2014 and the in-ternational price of wheat were researched by using the method of impulse response function,and the status of these countries or organizations in the international wheat market were identified,their development potentials were re-vealed. The results showed that the international prices of wheat were dominated by USA and Canada,but they all faced sluggish growth,and the wheat export of EU interacted virtuously with the international prices,Russia’s wheat exporting had prodigious potential.