基于混合Beta分布的水中兵器可靠性鉴定试验方案研究

摘要

该文讨论了混合验前分布时水中兵器的鉴定方案问题。在可靠性鉴定试验中，Bayes方法可以大量节省试验次数，但是过度依赖验前信息，当新产品有改进时会造成鉴定结果的冒进，而且对于双方风险的判断往往出现分歧。该文通过引入继承因子，在验前信息中加入均匀分布，减弱了对验前信息的过度依赖，更合理的考虑了产品的变化对评定结果的影响。再次基础上该文重点分析了混合验前分布时的使用方和生产方风险。计算结果表明此方法可以在节约试验样本的条件下兼顾了评定方案的稳健性。%A Bayesian plan of reliability qualification test based on the mixed Beta distribution for underwater weapons was studied. In reliability qualification test, fewer test are needed by using Bayesian method. However it may taking a risk relying on prior information immoderately, and has differences in opinions in the risk judgement. The factors of inheritance reduce the reliance by introducing uniform distribution into prior information. The influence of product transformation becomes reasonable, the producer risk and user risk is analysed in this paper. The calculation indicate that this method considers not only swatch saving, hut also moderation of the plan,