基于可靠性增长的武器系统可靠性鉴定试验方案研究

摘要

武器系统的可靠性鉴定试验往往面临试验样本有限、难以组织过多试验的困难.为了充分对武器系统可靠性指标进行考核,利用离散AMSAA模型描述可靠性增长过程,给出了可靠度点估计表达式.在此基础上,从工程实际出发,通过将可靠性增长试验评估结果与研制总要求规定数值进行比较分析,提出了一种相对客观和保守的先验分布确定方法.在Bayes框架下,给出了可靠性鉴定试验方案确定思路和方法.以某型装备为例,明确了试验方案确定方法的操作步骤,说明了方法的可实施性.通过数值分析,说明该方法在满足试验鉴定要求的前提下,能够有效减少总试验次数,并验证了该方法的保守性和合理性.%The test samples are limited for reliability qualification test of weapon system in most cases,therefore more engineering tests are difficult to be implemented.In order to evaluate fully the reliability index of weapon system,the reliability growth progress is described by using discrete AMSAA model,and the point estimation of reliability is obtained.The determination method of prior distribution,which is relatively objective and conservative,is presented by comparing the evaluated result of reliability growth test and the specified value of development general requirements.The determination thought and method of reliability qualification test scheme are proposed based on Bayes theory.The operating steps of determination method are illustrated by taking a weapon for example.It also demonstrates that the proposed method is available for engineering.The numerical simulations show that the determination method can be used to reduce the number of tests effetely on the precondition of test evaluation requirements.