集装箱船订单量的波动极大影响着造船企业的运营,探究其波动趋势对造船企业的健康发展意义重大.在分析自回归移动平均(ARMA)模型建模过程的基础上,以1996年1月至2011年10月世界集装箱船手持订单量为实证对象,建立科学的时间序列预测模型,并对手持订单量的短期发展趋势进行了预测.结果显示:世界集装箱船手持订单量将在预测期内实现平缓上升,且集装箱船市场发展基本处于正常状态.基于预测结果,提出稳定现有订单、合理承接订单及增强创新能力等建议.%Volatility of containership order greatly influences shipbuilding enterprises' operation. So it is significant for healthy development of shipbuilding enterprises to explore variation trend of containership order. Based on analyzing modeling process of ARMA model, the paper empirically studies world containership orderbook from January 1996 to October 2011. It establishes time series prediction model scientifically and predicts short-term development trend of containership orderbook. Results show that; world containership orderbook will rise smoothly in prediction period and market development of containership is basically normal. Above all, it puts forward suggestions such as ensuring existing orders, taking new orders reasonably and strengthening innovation ability and so on.
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