应用STIRPAT模型分析影响南京市2000-2015年农业碳排放驱动因素,并结合灰色模型GM(1,1)预测南京市2016-2025年农业碳排放量.研究结果显示:2000-2015年南京市农业碳排放量呈下降趋势,年均增长率为-3.07％;农村人口、富裕度、技术水平、能源效率、农村居民人均可支配收入、林业面积、城镇化率每发生1％的变动分别会引起南京市农业碳排放0.26％、0.11％、0.06％、0.31％、-0.07％、-0.06％、-0.09％的变化.根据GM(1,1)模型预测,南京市农业碳排放逐年下降,从2016年的57.96万t下降到2025年的45.41万t.研究得出南京市为进一步降低农业碳排放量,实现低碳农业发展,应调整农业产业结构,推行绿色农业生产方式,降低农业能源消耗,并加大政策扶持力度.%Analyses the factors affecting agricultural carbon emissions in Nanjing from 2000 to 2015 by STIRPAT model,and predicts the agricultural carbon emissions in Nanjing from 2016 to 2025 by gray model GM (1,1).The results show that,agricultural carbon emissions of Nanjing are decreasing from 2000 to 2015,with an average annual growth rate of -3.07％,and each of the rural population,wealth,technical level,energy efficiency,per capita disposable income of rural residents,area of forestry,urbanization rate each change 1％,will increase 0.26％,0.11％,0.06％,0.31％,-0.07％,-0.06％ and-0.09％ carbon emission from urban agricultural respectively.According to the GM (1,1)prediction model,it can be concluded that,the agricultural carbon emission in Nanjing decreases year by year from 57.96 × 104 tons in 2016 to 45.41 × 104 tons in 2025.Therefore,in order to reduce agricultural carbon emissions and achieve low-carbon agriculture,Nanjing should adjust the structure of agricultural industry,pursue green production mode,reduce agricultural energy consumption and increase policy support efforts.
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