在粮食生产方面,2003年至2015年的"十二连增",表明中国粮食总量生产方面所取得的瞩目成就.但当前中国粮食供求面临的粮食产量、库存量以及进口量"三量齐增"的困境,反映了这种总量增长模式的不可持续性,再加之物质成本、人工成本、土地成本"三本齐升"的压力,我国粮食的竞争力不断减弱.当前粮食供给虽然总量增长,但从供给和需求的角度分析,当前粮食生产供给的区域结构、品种结构和消费结构出现了不匹配的新特征,同时还面临进口冲击加大、消费习惯改变、生产效益不高以及资源环境硬约束等挑战.为此,本文立足供给和需求平衡的角度,从四个维度提出了促进中国粮食供求平衡的新思路:稳定粮食的生产,实现数量和质量的供求平衡;调节粮食品种,实现消费结构平衡;转变粮食生产方式,实现资源环境平衡;完善农产品价格形成机制,实现价格平衡.%China has made some remarkable achievements in grain production from 2003 to 2015, such as 12-year continuous growth. However, China also faces the new situation and some problems, including the dilemma of the simultaneous growth of grain production, storage, and imports. In addition, the costs of inputs, labor, and land are increasing constantly, leading to the weakening of the competitiveness of China's grain industry. Although the current grain production is growing, from the supply and demand perspective, the current regional structure, variety structure, and consumption structure of grain production do not match each other. At the same time, it is also faced the challenges of increasing imports, changing consumption habits, low production efficiency, and resource and environmental constraints. To promote China's grain supply and demand to reach equilibrium, this paper provides the following suggestions: stabilizing grain production to achieve equilibrium from both quantity and quality perspectives, guiding grain varieties to variety structure equilibrium, changing grain production mode to realize the equilibrium of resource and environment, and reforming price mechanism of agricultural products to achieve price equilibrium.
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