基于模糊理论的边坡失稳风险评估研究

摘要

It is necessary to resolve the problem of risk evaluation for the unstability of slopes, since the affecting factors on the slope unstability are complicated, the environment being changeable, risks during construction being large. Through the analysis and statistics of slopes losing stability incorporating many years' construction experience, the paper established a system of risk evaluation indices, by introducing fuzzy affiliated function curve to calculate the fuzzy section of risk probability and consequences, put forward a set of comprehensive risk evaluation methods and risk countermeasures. As proved by engineering practice, the evaluation system and evaluation theory can objectively and effectively evaluate the unstability of slopes, providing theoretical basis for formulating reasonable and effective risk countermeasures during construction.%边坡失稳风险影响因素复杂、周边环境多变,施工期风险较大,解决边坡失稳风险评估问题十分必要.通过对各类边坡失稳事故的分析统计并结合多年工程经验,建立了风险评价指标体系,制定了系统的风险管理标准,引入模糊隶属函数曲线计算出风险概率和后果的模糊区间,给出了一套完整的风险评估方法和风险应对措施.工程实践证明,该评价体系及评估理论可客观、有效的评价出边坡失稳风险,为施工期制定合理有效的风险应对措施提供理论依据.