城市轨道交通线网规模匡算研究

摘要

针对传统轨道交通线网匡算模型指标取值难度大、主观性强、灵敏度差的缺点，从可量化角度，以减少指标参数主观取值为目标，首先在远景城市全方式出行距离与全方式出行量之间分段方程的基础上，运用Logit模型，构建了理想交通结构测算模型，其次在规模经济与规模不经济的理论基础上，构建基于收支平衡点的理想负荷强度平衡方程，最后通过构建的综合模型对成都市远景轨道交通线网规模进行匡算实证分析。测算结果表明：该模型的测算灵敏度明显优于线网服务覆盖面法且能有效避免传统算法中因指标取值不当带来误差放大的影响。%In view of the poor sensitivity, strong subjectivity, low sensitivity and the difficulties in the calculation by the traditional rational scale of urban rail transit network model, this paper uses the logic model to establish an ideal model to estimate the structure of traffic based on piecewise process between the vision city full travel distance and all travel amount to reduce target parameters and subjective evaluation. Then on the basis of the theory of economy of scale and diseconomy of scale, an ideal analysis model of load intensity is established based on balance points. At last, a comprehensive model is also used to test the rational scale of Chengdu rail transit network and the results show that the model has high sensitivity and reduces error effectively.