基于证据理论的列控中心TSR处理功能安全性评估

摘要

在列控中心安全性评估过程中,为解决由于专家之间评分存在差异而可能致使评估结果不精确的问题,提出证据理论和FMEA相结合的评估方法,并考虑到FMEA方法中3个风险因子发生度、严重度和检测度之间的权重.以列控中心的TSR处理功能为例,首先建立风险因素集,结合对应的风险因子评分标准,每个专家对其风险因素的3个风险因子及各自的权重分别做出评价,视为一个证据;然后采用证据理论识别冲突证据,将可信度权重和专家自带权重二者等比例融合确定证据间的最终权重;最后以该权重来修正原有证据,从而解决不同专家评分存在差异的问题.对比传统FMEA方法,此方法计算得到的RPN评估结果更精确.%In order to solve the inaccuracy of the assessment results due to the scoring differences among different experts in the course of the safety assessment of the Train Control Center,an assessment method based on the evidence theory and FMEA is proposed and the weight of three risk factors of occurrence,severity and detection of the FMEA method are considered.With reference to the TSR processing function in Train Control Center,risk factor settings are established,and the occurrence,severity and detection of the risk factor settings are evaluated by each expert based on the assessment criteria for risk factors,which is taken as one evidence.Then,the respective weights are evaluated at the same time,and the evidence theory is applied to identify the conflict evidences.The final weight of the evidence is determined by the fusion of its credible weight and the expert's own weight of the same proportion.Finally,the original evidence is corrected by the final weight,thus solving scoring differences among the different experts in the assessment.Compared with the traditional FMEA method,the RPN assessment results calculated by this method are more accurate.