改进D-S证据理论的舰载弹库安全性评估

摘要

从提高舰船的生命力和部队战斗力出发,分析了影响舰载弹库安全的各个因素及其联系之后,建立了舰载弹库安全性评价指标体系.针对评价中难以客观确定专家的可信度以及D-S证据理论无法有效合成冲突证据的问题,提出了一种基于P距离确定证据信息量的证据合成方法,并以此进行舰载弹库安全性评估.算例表明改进后的证据理论能够很好地解决存在人为因素和不确定因素的评估问题,对舰载弹库安全性评估的结果较为满意.%On the basis of enhancing the marine's life-force and battle effectiveness; after analyzing various factors and correlations between these factors; the safety evaluation model of ship-borne is established. In order to solve the problem of evaluation with expert' s degree of belief is difficult to ascertain impersonality and the invalidation of D-S evidence combination rule with high conflict; an evidence combination method based on information by P distance is presented;then using it to evaluate the safety of ship-borne depot. The result shows that the improved evidence theory can solve the assessment with the problem of subjective and uncertain factors;and the result of ship-borne depot's safety assessment is quite satisfactory by means of it.