通过对京沪、京九线部分区段轨道几何状态长达5年的跟踪分析,发现大机捣固后线路变化呈现一定的规律性:高低、轨向、长波高低、长波轨向捣固后的恶化趋势可以很好地用线性关系拟合,且每次捣固后拟合直线的斜率接近,表明高低、轨向捣固后的恶化速率保持不变;高低的恶化速率要远大于三角坑、轨向、长波高低和长波轨向.因此选用恶化速率快且规律性好的高低指标作为捣固维修决策指标最为合适.参考国外标准,结合我国有砟线路统计分析结果,提出了基于高低不平顺的捣固阈值建议值,利用置信区间内历史恶化速率平均值可以很好地预测高低的发展.以京沪线K1339-K1350区段为例,给出了各区段预测的捣固时机,并对3个明显有差别的区段进行了详细分析,验证了预测捣固时机的合理性.%Based on the 5 years tracking analysis of track geometrical state of some sections of Beijing-Shanghai railway and Beijing-Kowloon railway,it is found that the track geometrical change after large machine tamping shows some regularities.The deterioration trends of track geometrical irregularity indexes such as longitudinal level,track alignment,long-wave longitudinal level and long-wave alignment can be well fitted by linear relationships.The line slopes after each tamping are close,indicating that the deterioration rates of different indexes are constant.The deterioration rate of longitudinal level is much larger than those of triangle pit,track alignment,long-wave longitudinal level and long-wave alignment.Therefore,the most appropriate indicator used as maintenance standard indicator and decision-making indicator of tamping operation time should be the longitudinal level whose deterioration rate is rapid and showing good evolution law.With reference to relative foreign standards and combing with the statistical analysis results of the ballasted railways in China,the proposed value of the tamping threshold based on the longitudinal level was put forward.The average value of the historical deterioration rates in the confidence interval can be used to predict the development of the longitudinal level.Taking the K1339-K1350 section of Beijing-Shanghai railway as an example,the tamping time of each section was given,and the three distinct sections were analyzed in detail to verify the rationality of the forecasting tamping time.
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