定量与定性评估在轨道工程建设危险源识别中的应用

摘要

为了针对性地对轨道工程建设危险源加以控制,提出一种对轨道工程建设危险源进行识别的定性及定量分析方法.在定性分析阶段,借鉴分类思想将轨道工程建设危险源按特征分为管理类、机电类、施工类以及专项类;在定量分析阶段,采用主客观综合赋权法对不同危险源重要度权重进行赋值并利用三角模糊数及运算规则确定出模糊矩阵,最终通过综合评价给出各类危险源对轨道工程建设安全影响的相对重要程度.以北京一地铁工程为例说明了此方法的可行性和有效性.%In order to control the risk source of track engineering construction systematically,a qualitative and quantitative analysis method for identifying risk source of track engineering construction was put forward. In the qualitative analysis stage,the risk source characteristics of track engineering construction were divided into management class,electromechanical class,construction class and special class based on the classification idea,the weights of different risk source importance were assigned by using subjective and objective synthetic weighting method and fuzzy matrix was determined by utilizing the triangular fuzzy number and its operation rules in quantitative analysis stage,and the relative importance degree of different risk source influence on track engineering construction safety was presented by the comprehensive evaluation. T he feasibility and effectiveness of the method presented in this paper was illustrated by taking one Beijing metro project as an example.