The problem of the exiting rainfall warning system for the prevention of railway disasters is that the determination of rainfall warning values is mainly by statistical data or experience,so lacking deep analysis of the mechanism of slope topsoil disaster induced by rainfall. This situation causes that the rainfall warning values do not match actual disaster grades. The main railway subgrade slope disaster is slope topsoil slip during rainy days. The mechanism of slope topsoil erosion and slip and their process were studied in this paper. Five main factors causing topsoil slip were summarized. In view of the above,it is suggested that Hierarchy Analysis Method should be applied to scientif ically determine the rainfall warning values.%针对铁路现行雨量预警制度中制订雨量警戒值大多根据以往统计数据或凭借经验,缺乏对降雨成灾机理的科学深入分析,致使雨量警戒值标准与实际灾害等级不相符的问题,从降雨过程中路基边坡主要病害边坡溜坍着手,研究了边坡冲刷、溜坍的机理及发展过程,总结概括了影响边坡溜坍的5个主要因素,分析了边坡溜坍与降雨之间的内在联系.建议应用层次分析法对雨量预警值予以重新分级评价.
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