现代化视角下的出生性别比偏高与中国人口转变

摘要

文章从现代化理论的视角出发，通过历史/比较研究方法和对中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心“2010年育龄妇女家庭与生育状况”调查数据的定量分析，研究了为什么在中国的人口转变过程中会出现出生性别比偏高的现象，以及现代化进程的推进将会对未来出生性别比的发展趋势带来什么样的影响。研究发现，中国现代化进程的滞后性和矛盾交织性使得在中国的人口转变过程中，支持生育率下降和支持男孩偏好的因素共同存在，从而导致了出生性别比偏高现象的出现。而随着现代化进程的推进，农业文明终将解体，出生性别比也将回归正常水平。%Using the historical/comparative research method and the data of family and fertility survey conducted in 2010 , this paper analyses the relation between high sex ratio at birth and demography transition in China from the perspective of modernization and studies the influence of modernization on the trend of sex ratio at birth in China .The findings indicate that time lag and contradiction of modernization make the factors of supporting the declining fertility and the preference for boys coexist and intertwine at the same time , resulting in the emergence of the high sex ratio at birth.In the future, with the rapid development of modernization and the disintegration of agriculture civilization , the sex ratio at birth will decrease to the normal level in China .