合理退休年龄影响因素的理论分析及实证研究

摘要

This paper adopts multiple regression model to analysis the effect of population, economics and pension system on the retirement age of the world in 2011 , and predicts the optimal retirement age in China based on the empirical result. The empirical result shows that: aging, life expectancy, economic level, economic structure as well as pension system etc have a significant effect on the retirement age; In China, the optimal retirement of male should be 60. 84 and while it is supposed to be 57. 62 for female and which is later than the current statutory retirement age. If the current pension system does not change in next three decades, the optimal retirement age of male will be 62. 19 and 63. 75 respectively in 2020 and 2030 and which of female will be 59. 61 and 61. 33 respectively. So that it is inevitable to delay retirement in the future.%采用回归分析方法研究2011年世界各国退休年龄对人口、经济及养老金制度等因素的依赖关系，并基于实证结果对我国合理退休年龄进行预测。实证结果显示：人口老龄化程度、预期寿命、经济发展水平、经济结构及养老金制度等对退休年龄都有显著影响，制定合理退休年龄需综合考虑这些影响因素；我国目前男性合理退休年龄为60．84岁，女性合理退休年龄为57．62岁，女性法定退休年龄偏早。若不改变现有的养老金制度，预计到2020和2030年，男性合理退休年龄分别为62．19岁和63．75岁，女性合理退休年龄分别为59．61岁和61．33岁，因此延迟退休是必然趋势。