延迟退休的影响效果分析

摘要

近年来，延迟退休的问题引发了学术界和社会大众的广泛讨论。本文将研究视点放在提高退休年龄对养老金支付和劳动力就业的影响效果方面。通过构建不同的计量模型，实际估算了延迟退休对养老保险基金收支变化的影响，以及对劳动力市场的就业挤出效应。结果发现：提高法定退休年龄对养老金缺口存在一定的补偿效应，但从短期来看效果有限；而对就业总量的确将产生挤出效应。并发现，老年人就业岗位与青年人就业岗位之间存在替代性，也就是说延迟退休将严重影响青年人的就业。因此建议政府要慎重考虑并只能在适当的时机推动延迟退休。%In recent years,the problems of Delay retirement caused widely discussed by academia and the public. This article focuses on the effects of raising the retirement age on pension payments and the labor force. By building different econometric model,estimate the actual impact of delay retirement on the changes of pension fund payments ,as well as the crowding-out effect of labor force. Result revealed that: raising retirement age for pension gap exist certain compensation effect ,but in the short term effect is limited;indeed crowding-out effect will occur. And found that ,the jobs are alternative between the elderly and young people,i.e. delay retirement will seriously affect the youth employment. Therefore ,suggested that the government should consider carefully and carry out delay retirement only at an appropriate time.