基于突变理论的北疆城镇区域相对资源承载力评价研究

摘要

According to the method of relative carrying capacity of resources,relative carrying capacity of nature resources(in-cluding water resources and land resources) and relative carrying capacity of economic resources in the town area of northern xinjiang from 1988 to 2012 was computed;according to mutation progression method,the resource carrying capacity was eval-uated. The results indicate a fluctuant trend of resource carrying capacity in the town area of northern xinjiang. The relative e-conomic resource carrying capacity is always higher than the relative natural resource capacity ,the relative land resource car-rying capacity has been increasing steadily,the relative water resource carrying capacity is stable all the time,but has been in the state of overload.%采用相对资源承载力的研究方法，计算了1988—2012年间北疆城镇区域的相对自然资源（包括水资源和土地资源）承载力和相对经济资源承载力；运用突变级数法对北疆城镇区域资源承载力进行综合评价研究。研究表明北疆城镇区域：综合资源承载力的发展呈现波段变化、总体上升的趋势；相对经济资源承载力始终大于相对自然资源承载力，且经济资源承载力始终处于富余状态；土地资源的相对承载力一直处于稳步上升状态；水资源承载力始终比较稳定，但一直处于超载状态。