基于网格技术的长江干线碰撞风险评价方法研究

摘要

As China's largest and world's busiest inland river, the Yangtze River's sustainable development and navigational safety are widely concerned by various parties.However, with the economic development of the Middle and Western part of China, the throughput and passing ships of the Yangtze River have been increasing rapidly during the past few years.Collisions, groundings, overturns, oil-spills, fires, and other accidents occurred repeatedly and caused serious consequences.In view of this, a grid-based collision risk assessment model is established, referring to the research results of worldwide experts and scholars and based on the analysis and research of traffic flow, channel status and the environment.With the model, the collision risk in the main route of the Yangtze River is evaluated as an example.%长江作为我国第一也是世界最为繁忙的河流,它的可持续发展和航运安全一直受到社会各界的广泛关注.近年来,随着我国中西部地区的迅猛发展,一方面长江船舶的流量和货物吞吐量与日俱增,另一方面船舶碰撞、搁浅、翻沉、油污、火灾等水上交通事故仍屡次发生,并造成了严重的后果.有鉴于此,结合专家学者们的相关研究成果,在研究船舶交通流、航道状态以及环境影响的基础上,建立了一个基于网格技术的碰撞风险评价模型,并以此对长江干线的碰撞风险进行了评价分析.