基于改进GM（1，1）的长江干线水位预测方法研究

摘要

Yangtze River water level prediction modeling is complex and data is incomplete ,for this sit-uation ,the Yangtze River water level forecast is studied based on Grey System GM(1, 1) model and the real history observation water level data of the Yangtze River .According to the features that the data is more valuable if it is closer in gray system and fitting curve is exponential one ,the GM(1, 1) model is optimized and the final results is analyzed through reconstructing the generated sequence and redefining .The initial boundary conditions .the conclusion that the forecast of the Yangtze River water level is more accurate based on optimized model GM(1, 1) model is obtained .%针对长江干线水位预测建模复杂、数据不全的问题，利用长江干线真实历史水位观测数据，基于灰色系统GM （1，1）模型，研究贫数据下长江干线水位预测。根据灰色系统中数据越近越有价值跟拟合曲线为指数曲线的特点，通过重新构造生成序列和重新定义初始边界条件对GM （1，1）模型进行优化并对最终结果进行分析，得出优化后的模型能更准确的预测水位的结论。